Storms building near Goondiwindi, extreme | Australia weather Sun 1 Nov afternoon | Gus's Weather

Storms building near Goondiwindi, extreme fire risk in SA: Gus's Weather Sun 1 Nov PM

[c06_radar_now]

GUS G'day, I'm Gus. This is the afternoon bulletin for Sunday the 1st of November. I'm a robot, and every figure you hear today comes straight from the data.

GUS The big story: storms are building over inland southern Queensland and northern New South Wales, aiming at a nasty combination near Goondiwindi by Tuesday morning.

GUS It's about 5 pm in Brisbane at the time this is uploaded.

GUS This is the Bureau of Meteorology's real national radar, the whole country on one picture, newest frame about nine minutes old. Credit to the Bureau for that.

GUS Working through where it's heaviest: right near Goondiwindi in Queensland a cell is at the top of the Bureau's scale, about 6000 square kilometres of it. South of Toowoomba another top of the scale cell.

GUS West of Barcaldine it's heavy, south east and north of Roma it's very heavy to top of scale,

GUS and well east of Mount Isa, out in remote country, a very heavy cell covers about 5500 square kilometres.

GUS Among the capitals, there's rain near Adelaide and Brisbane right now, heavy rain near Darwin, light rain near Melbourne, Canberra and Sydney, and Perth and Hobart are clear under radar cover.

GUS Tell me in the comments what the sky's doing where you are, I read as many as I can during the day.

GUS Everything in this bulletin is indexed in the description, so if you're in a hurry you can jump to the part you want from the chapters below.

[c07_lightning_now]

GUS We also track lightning now, using the Blitzortung network, a volunteer set of sensors that pick up strikes across the country. It's a sample, not every strike, so I'll talk in round numbers.

GUS About 300 strikes have been picked up in the last six hours, and the busiest cluster is inland west of the Gold Coast, growing, with about 150 strikes there in that window.

GUS There's also lightning near Goondiwindi, steady, with a smaller patch out near Mount Isa.

GUS Brisbane and the Gold Coast also have a few strikes nearby in the last six hours. This isn't a warning, just where the activity is. For official warnings, that's bom.gov.au.

[c05_obs_now]

GUS Before we get to forecasts, here's what's actually been measured, by Bureau of Meteorology stations, since 9 this morning. Credit to the Bureau for that network.

GUS The wettest spot in the country is in northern New South Wales, about 13 millimetres of rain since 9 am, with Glen Innes close behind at about 12 millimetres and Casino at about 10 millimetres.

GUS Spare a thought for the farmers out around Glen Innes, that's a handy top up for the paddocks.

GUS It's actually raining right now in the Adelaide Hills in South Australia, with places like Mount Crawford and Nuriootpa picking up a few millimetres an hour.

GUS The strongest gusts have been well south, near 69 kilometres an hour off Tasmania, and in outback South Australia, past 55 kilometres an hour in that hot, dry air.

[c04_satellite]

GUS Now the satellite, which measures how cold, and so how high, storm tops are, and can see cloud where there's no radar coverage at all.

GUS East of Mount Isa and inland of the Kimberley coast, storm tops are down near minus 62 degrees Celsius, genuinely tall and cold.

GUS Brisbane also has storm cloud nearby right now, tops down near minus 46 degrees.

GUS The model's own simulated radar missed that remote cluster entirely, so out there the model's running a touch behind, though nowhere with people in the path is affected. The satellite is the real measurement.

[c01_verification]

GUS Before today's forecast, it's only fair to check how my last call went, so you can judge how far to trust this one.

GUS Across 48 towns, my daytime highs on Friday were off by an average of 1.8 degrees, running a little cool. My worst miss was Port Hedland, 5.8 degrees under what actually happened.

[c02_mslp_fronts]

GUS The Bureau has an extreme heatwave warning for Western Australia's North Interior and a severe heatwave warning for Darwin's surrounding Daly, Tiwi, Arnhem and Carpentaria districts, as of 3:36 pm local time.

GUS The Bureau has a severe heatwave warning for the Pilbara district in Western Australia, daytime temperatures in the low to mid forties for several days with little overnight relief, as of 3:36 pm local time.

GUS That warning runs for the next three days, so people around Tom Price and Paraburdoo should check on elderly neighbours and keep pets and livestock shaded.

GUS There's also a severe heatwave warning for Queensland's Peninsula and Gulf Country, reaching into the Northern Goldfields and Upper Flinders district, with afternoon temperatures near 40 degrees continuing through the week.

GUS The Bureau also has a moderate flood warning for the Condamine River from Oakey Creek to Cotswold, and the Bulloo River near Quilpie, where the gauge is near 4.2 metres and still rising.

GUS There's also a moderate flood warning for the Warrego River near Charleville at about 3.8 metres, and the Barcoo River from Isisford to Blackall at about 3.5 metres, both still rising slowly.

GUS Now the bigger picture: a weak high over eastern South Australia, a low over the Bight, an upper trough crossing the Goldfields, and the jet stream near 300 kilometres an hour west of Mildura.

GUS Far offshore, the European ensemble is watching two very early tropical low signals over the central Pacific, thousands of kilometres away, with members spread right across the map, too early to say more.

[c07_cape]

GUS Let's look at the ingredients for the storms building this week, because that's how I judge whether they'll really go, not just whether a model shows rain.

GUS Meteorologists measure the energy a storm can feed on. Think of it like the petrol in a storm's tank.

GUS Near Goondiwindi, that tank is sitting at about 2540 joules per kilogram by Tuesday morning, a big tank for this time of year.

GUS So the fuel is there. Next I need to check whether anything's holding the lid on, and whether there's a trigger to set it off.

[c08_skewt]

GUS This model sounding is a core sample through the air, showing how temperature and moisture change with height above Bendigo.

GUS A layer of warm air aloft normally acts like a lid on a pot, stopping storms rising, and here that lid looks weak, so storms should get going without much trouble Monday evening.

GUS With the storm fuel already building and barely any lid in the way, the trigger is a cool change moving through central Victoria.

GUS That timing lines up for Monday evening, so around Bendigo and Ballarat that's worth watching closely.

[c11_shear]

GUS Now wind shear, how much the wind changes speed and direction with height. Picture a spinning top, a storm can tilt that spin upright and start turning on itself.

GUS Near Bendigo in central Victoria, likely to see storms Monday evening, shear is around 63 kilometres an hour through the lowest six kilometres, strong enough to support organised, possibly rotating storms.

GUS That's enough spin potential to worry about, especially combined with the storm fuel already building there.

GUS So Bendigo has the spin ingredient. Next, what that means for hail and damaging wind.

[c13_index_map]

GUS This chart blends ingredients to say how likely a storm is to organise and spin, and how big the hail could get. These are guidance about the environment, not a guaranteed hail size.

GUS Near Bendigo the supercell value is high, meaning the environment supports a rotating, long lived storm, a supercell, rather than a quick pulse storm, driven more by spin than by hail.

GUS So expect more damaging wind and heavy rain risk from Bendigo's storms than giant hail, though a stray large hailstone can't be ruled out.

[c10_sim_radar]

GUS Bendigo, home to about 100,000 people, is worth real attention, with a storm peak expected Monday evening around 5 pm local time.

GUS Storm fuel there is about 1159 joules per kilogram, solid for Victoria this time of year, with shear strong enough to support organised storms.

GUS Storms can join into one bigger cluster, a mesoscale convective system, with heavier pockets inside it, which is why one street gets a downpour and the next barely gets wet.

GUS For Bendigo and nearby Ballarat, expect scattered heavy falls, likely some large hail and damaging gusts Monday evening, totals typically 10 to 20 millimetres but some spots could see more.

[c94_sounding_compare]

GUS This model sounding shows the air temperature on the right and the dew point, how much moisture is in the air, on the left.

GUS Where they sit close together the air is nearly saturated, where they're far apart it's dry.

GUS Kununurra in Western Australia's north has moist air reaching up past 300 hectopascals, meaning quick heavy rain there.

GUS It's a good reminder that two places a long way apart can have completely different stories written in the same sky.

[c09_skewt]

GUS Up near Darwin, the hot, humid build up means storms are more hit and miss than reliable this time of year.

GUS South west of Darwin near Wadeye, storm fuel is enormous, mainly meaning heavy rain and flash flooding on tracks.

GUS Darwin itself should stay mostly dry tonight.

[c19_model_compare]

GUS Here's how the three models, the American GFS, the European model and the European AI model, line up on rain for the week's main storm patches.

GUS Near Bendigo and Ballarat they broadly agree on steady totals for Monday evening, giving me reasonable confidence in that call.

GUS Near Kununurra they disagree a lot, from about 1 to 18 millimetres, so the placement of that build up rain is genuinely uncertain even though heavy falls are likely somewhere.

[c16_index_map]

GUS This chart measures how dangerous fire conditions are today, blending heat, wind, dryness and how much fuel the drought has left in the ground. The scale runs from low up to catastrophic.

GUS South west of Coober Pedy in northern South Australia, the fire danger index reached extreme this afternoon.

GUS Over in western New South Wales near Broken Hill, home to about 17,000 people, the fire danger index is at extreme levels too, with gusts to 72 kilometres an hour expected Monday afternoon.

GUS In both places the drought factor, how dried out the fuel is, is very high, near the top of the scale. Now's not the time for outdoor burning, and have a plan ready.

[c92_river_gauges]

GUS Quick river check, from the Queensland Government's monitoring network.

GUS The Fitzroy River at The Gap near Rockhampton is at about 6.47 metres and rising slowly, while the Bremer,

GUS Logan and Mary Rivers are falling after recent rain, level and trend only, flood warnings are on bom.gov.au.

GUS The ground in south east Queensland is already very wet, about 48 millimetres of rain this past week against a usual 18 millimetres, so fresh rain runs off faster than into dry ground.

GUS Credit to SILO and the Queensland Government for that record.

[c90_events]

GUS A few big events worth a weather check.

GUS Sculpture by the Sea on Sydney's Bondi to Tamarama walk, with crowds in the hundreds of thousands, has a genuine thunderstorm risk today and tomorrow, so keep half an eye on the sky.

GUS The Rugby League World Cup at CommBank Stadium in Parramatta tonight also carries a thunderstorm risk, with gusts possibly to 40 kilometres an hour.

GUS Tuesday's Spring Carnival at Royal Randwick has a similar storm risk plus about 3 millimetres of rain likely, while the Melbourne Cup at Flemington looks mostly fine, just a touch of rain.

GUS For all of these, if there's thunder about, get under cover, lightning is genuinely dangerous outdoors.

[c21_town_table]

GUS Right, the capitals. I'll give you today's top and tomorrow's overnight low and daytime high, plus the rain, in degrees, that's Celsius, the only time I'll say that word today.

GUS Brisbane: a top of 27 today, tomorrow low 18 high 30, with about 8 millimetres of rain, worth keeping an umbrella handy.

GUS Brisbane and the Gold Coast should keep an eye on the sky through Tuesday and Wednesday as that Goondiwindi system pushes rain and storms toward the coast,

GUS so it's a good couple of days to park under cover if you can.

GUS Sydney, a top of 24 today, tomorrow low 17 high 24, with about 1 millimetre of rain, nothing to really worry about.

GUS Canberra, a top of 22 today, tomorrow low 9 high 22, essentially dry.

GUS Melbourne, a top of 20 today, tomorrow low 10 high 20, just half a millimetre of rain, but that changes fast heading into Monday night.

GUS Melbourne's half a millimetre today is nothing, but with storms likely near Bendigo and Ballarat Monday evening, anyone out at the cricket or footy training should have a plan if thunder rolls in.

GUS Hobart, a top of 17 today, tomorrow low 9 high 16, dry. That's jumper weather down there tonight, nothing new for Hobart in spring.

GUS Adelaide, a top of 21 today, tomorrow low 16 high 21, with about 3 millimetres of rain, so the washing might need a second rinse for free rather than a full dry out.

GUS Perth, a top of 20 today, tomorrow low 14 high 21, barely any rain at all. Perth's doing its usual thing, mild and dry, no complaints out that way.

GUS Darwin: top 35 today, tomorrow low 27 high 34, about 6 millimetres of rain, classic build up weather.

GUS Why did the cloud bring an umbrella to Adelaide? In case it ran into precipitation. I'll see myself out, back to the forecast.

[c20_plume]

GUS Now the week ahead, days two through eight, using a European model's nine day rain signal. This is rain only, no thunderstorm or hail detail, so it can tell you wet, not stormy.

GUS South east Queensland looks genuinely wet Tuesday and Wednesday, with Toowoomba and the Sunshine Coast the wettest spots, then drying out before a showery signal returns next weekend.

GUS Central Queensland sees showers building from Wednesday through the following week, Rockhampton the focus.

GUS Victoria and Tasmania have a heavy signal on Monday, Melbourne, Geelong, Ballarat and Bendigo all in it, easing through midweek before showers return late in the week.

GUS The Top End turns showery from Thursday, Darwin among the wettest spots.

GUS Days two and three are fairly reliable, days four and five a guide,

GUS and days six through eight are only a signal that can change completely by the next bulletin, small errors in the model double every day or two out that far.

GUS The next bulletin will update all of this.

[c21_town_table]

GUS Looking further out at the storm ingredients for days three to seven, using one model run, so treat this as a guide that will shift.

GUS South east Queensland has plenty of stored storm energy building again by next Saturday and Sunday, but nothing obvious lined up to set it off, so these storms could easily fizzle rather than fire.

GUS Central Queensland and the Top End show a similar pattern most days this week, energy without a clear trigger, so again, worth watching rather than locking in.

GUS Northern New South Wales looks mostly quiet through the week, with a trough bringing showers rather than storms by next Sunday.

GUS For the weekend itself: south east Queensland, storms are possible Saturday and Sunday but far from certain. Sydney looks mostly dry and mild. Canberra looks dry and cool.

GUS Melbourne looks dry Saturday with a shower signal returning Sunday. Of those four, south east Queensland is the one to watch most closely as we get closer.

GUS For Sydney, that light one millimetre today and dry run continuing means it's a good weekend for the Spring Carnival crowds at Randwick and the Rugby League World Cup at Parramatta,

GUS just keep half an eye out for the stray storm risk already flagged there.

GUS Brisbane's weekend sits on the wetter side of that pattern too, so if you're out and about, an umbrella in the bag beats getting caught at the servo.

GUS Canberra's also looking at a few sharp frosty mornings through the week, with overnight lows near 4 degrees midweek before it warms up again for the weekend.

[c17_temp]

GUS My confidence in today's call is fairly high, thanks to strong model agreement on the pattern over the next two days. A shift in the Goondiwindi trough overnight would move the whole storm target.

GUS Quick homework for you. If you're anywhere between Toowoomba and Goondiwindi tomorrow morning, look for towering cloud building early, that's often the first sign the cap has broken and storms are getting going.

GUS For all the official warnings, check bom.gov.au. The next bulletin is tomorrow morning.

GUS If you've got a weather question, drop it in the comments and I'll get to as many as I can during the day, and if you want these every morning and afternoon, consider subscribing.

GUS Look up now and then, the sky's the best show in town.

GUS Gus's Weather is a PandaVision production.