Inland QLD Storms, Flooding and Severe Fire | Australia weather Thu 29 Oct morning | Gus's Weather

Inland QLD Storms, Flooding and Severe Fire Danger | Thu 29 Oct

[c00_now_radar]

GUS G'day, I'm Gus, and this is the morning bulletin for Thursday the 29th of October 2026.

GUS In this first part I want to answer one question: what is happening around Australia in the next hour or so at the time this is uploaded.

GUS It is about 6 am in Brisbane at the time this bulletin is uploaded, and the model's simulated radar shows the most active weather inland near Alice Springs.

GUS See the marker about 150 kilometres north-west of Alice Springs: rain at up to 17.3 millimetres an hour, which is a heavy burst.

GUS That is remote country, hundreds of kilometres from any large town, so the risk is mainly to unsealed roads and dry creek crossings.

GUS Further north-west, a smaller cell has rain at up to 8.7 millimetres an hour, and another near the centre has 5.8 millimetres an hour.

GUS First we check the measured radar and gauges, then the warnings, the storm ingredients, the capitals, fire danger and the week ahead.

GUS Everything is indexed in the video description, so you can jump to the part you want from the chapters.

[c04_satellite]

GUS Why look at the satellite? This is the real cloud top temperature measured by Himawari, not a model.

GUS At 4:30 in the morning Brisbane time, the satellite showed a severe-looking storm cloud about 90 kilometres south-west of Tennant Creek.

GUS Its coldest cloud top is minus 63 degrees Celsius, which means the top of the storm is very high and the updraught is strong.

GUS Another storm top near the Tanami is minus 59 degrees Celsius, and one over the Timor Sea west of Darwin is minus 55 degrees Celsius.

GUS Darwin is the only capital city with storm cloud within 100 kilometres as this bulletin is uploaded.

GUS No storm cloud sits near Brisbane, Sydney, Melbourne, Adelaide, Perth, Hobart or Canberra right now.

GUS The model's simulated radar agrees with the satellite on the main inland storm area, so the model is not running behind today.

[c06_radar_now]

GUS Now here is the real radar for the whole country, not a model, and it is measured by the Bureau of Meteorology.

GUS The newest frame is only about 1 minute old as this bulletin is made, so it is almost live.

GUS The hardest rain near people is in New South Wales, with a small top-of-the-scale cell about 185 kilometres south of Toowoomba.

GUS Another top-of-the-scale cell sits about 50 kilometres north-west of Wollongong, which is close enough to watch creeks near the escarpment.

GUS Sydney has rain on the radar, and Brisbane has a light echo; Perth, Adelaide, Melbourne, Hobart, Canberra and Darwin are clear in the covered areas.

GUS The remote inland has a very heavy cell about 616 kilometres west of Alice Springs, and there are offshore cells south-east of Tasmania.

GUS The model's earlier inland cells around Alice Springs match the real radar pattern, so the science is lined up.

GUS Outside the white circles on the radar picture, no radar can see, so say no radar there, not dry.

[c05_obs_now]

GUS Let us check the rain gauges, because these are measured by Bureau of Meteorology automatic weather stations.

GUS The phrase 'since 9 am' means since 9 in the morning local time, not the last hour.

GUS The wettest place so far today is Double Island Point in Queensland with 104.2 millimetres of rain since 9am.

GUS Rockhampton has picked up 53.0 millimetres of rain, St Lawrence 53.2 millimetres, and Hervey Bay 41.6 millimetres.

GUS Alice Springs Airport in the Northern Territory has 39.2 millimetres of rain, which is a real centre drink.

GUS Right now, the rain is mostly light and patchy: a few stations are reporting under 2 millimetres an hour.

GUS The strongest measured gust this morning is 78 kilometres an hour at Maatsuyker Island in Tasmania.

GUS That is the cool-season racing weather in the south, not the inland storm event.

[c92_river_gauges]

GUS Before the storm day, I need to show you the rivers, because there are active flood warnings in southern Queensland.

GUS The Bureau of Meteorology has a Major Flood Warning for the Condamine River downstream of Warwick to Oakey Creek, including Tummaville and Cecil Plains.

GUS Major means the river has broken its banks and there is likely to be water over roads and farmland near the river.

GUS There is also a Moderate Flood Warning for the Warrego River near Charleville and Cunnamulla, and for the Weir River at Talwood.

GUS The Queensland Government gauges show the Logan River at Yarrahappini at 4.67 metres and falling over the last 24 hours.

GUS The Mary River at Miva is 4.23 metres and steady, while the Burnett at Mount Lawless is 1.62 metres and rising.

GUS Those readings tell you the level and trend, not the official flood class; for official warnings, go to bom.gov.au.

GUS Most of south-east Queensland is already very wet from rain this week, so any new rain runs off quickly into creeks and drains.

[c01_verification]

GUS Now the scoreboard, because we check the last call before trusting today's.

GUS Yesterday's overnight lows in Brisbane, Hobart, Melbourne and Sydney were all within about a degree Celsius of what happened.

GUS Adelaide was our worst low: we said 8.5 degrees Celsius and the gauge got 6.5 degrees Celsius, so a couple of degrees too warm.

GUS For rain, the broad strokes were right in central Queensland, but we overdid light rain in a few coastal towns.

GUS Over the last seven days, our daytime highs were within 2 degrees Celsius in 173 of 233 town forecasts.

GUS That is roughly 74 per cent, so the pattern is trustworthy, but the exact millimetre in your backyard is fuzzier.

GUS Today I will lean on where the models agree and be careful about exact storm placement.

[c02_mslp_fronts]

GUS Now the big picture. A forecaster asks where the air is coming from before asking where storms will fire.

GUS The lines on this chart are isobars: lines of equal pressure in hectopascals.

GUS A 1027 hectopascal high sits over the Great Australian Bight, and a smaller high of 1022 hectopascals sits over southern Queensland.

GUS A low of 1006.8 hectopascals sits over the Goldfields in Western Australia, and a smaller low sits over the Tanami.

GUS The low over the Tanami and the high over the Bight are steering warm, moist air into Central Australia and southern Queensland.

GUS Think of a low as a hollow in the atmosphere: air flows in and rises, and rising air is the first trigger for storm.

GUS That is why the inland is the storm zone today, while the southern capitals sit under a less active pattern.

[c03_upper_500]

GUS Why look upstairs? The winds and temperature around five kilometres up steer storms and make them organised.

GUS This chart shows the height of the 500 hectopascal pressure surface, which is about five and a half kilometres above sea level.

GUS A cold pocket of minus 25.7 degrees Celsius sits over the Tasman Sea, well east of Hobart, but too far south for today's inland storms.

GUS The important upper trough runs from near Lord Howe Island across inland New South Wales to about 180 kilometres south-west of Coober Pedy.

GUS A trough is a stretched-out bend of lower pressure aloft; on this chart you can see it as a kink in the height lines.

GUS The jet stream's strongest core sits over the Southern Ocean with winds up to 272 kilometres an hour.

GUS That upper trough and the jet provide changing winds with height, which we call shear, and we will unpack that later.

[c06_pwat]

GUS Now the moisture story. Dew point is the temperature in degrees Celsius at which the air would become saturated.

GUS Near the Gulf Country on Friday afternoon, the dew point is about 22.9 degrees Celsius, which is properly tropical.

GUS Near Darwin the dew point is about 25.2 degrees Celsius, and near Longreach about 20.0 degrees Celsius.

GUS Precipitable water is the depth of rain in millimetres the whole atmosphere would make if every bit of water fell at once.

GUS Think of it as the water in the whole sky above your head, not just the dew at your feet.

GUS Near the Gulf Country on Friday the model has about 55.3 millimetres of precipitable water, and near Longreach about 47.5 millimetres.

GUS Those are very juicy columns, and they confirm the moisture is not just skin-deep, so storms will have plenty to rain out.

[c07_cape]

GUS Now the storm energy, which forecasters call CAPE, short for Convective Available Potential Energy.

GUS Think of CAPE as the petrol in the storm's tank, measured in joules per kilogram of air.

GUS When warm, moist air rises, this stored energy is released and builds the tall updraughts that make thunderstorms.

GUS The Gulf Country has about 2724 joules per kilogram of CAPE in the model by Friday afternoon, which is a very big tank.

GUS The energy is there, but energy alone never makes a storm; something has to lift the air and break the lid.

GUS So the next question is the cap and the trigger, which we will look at with a vertical profile.

[c08_skewt]

GUS A quick look at a model sounding south-east of Longreach: a weak cap, about 47 to 76 joules per kilogram, lets storms fire easily there on Friday evening.

GUS A sounding is a vertical slice through the air above one spot, showing temperature and moisture at each height.

GUS With that weak cap, let's see where the model actually fires those storms.

[c10_sim_radar]

GUS Now we look at the model radar, where the cap breaks and storms actually get going.

GUS On Friday evening, the model fires several cells across southern Queensland.

GUS Storm initiation is like popcorn: once the first lid breaks, nearby cells quickly pop and join into clusters.

GUS The trigger is the upper trough moving in from the west, meeting the deep moisture that we have already seen.

GUS Where the boundary and the moisture meet, that is the likely line of storms, with the strongest cells on the inland side.

GUS Longreach may only get about 2 millimetres of rain from the first storm, but nearby areas could get much more.

GUS Do not lock it in yet; this chart is about where storms fire, not the final rain number.

[c11_shear]

GUS Now shear, which is the change in wind speed and direction as you go up through the atmosphere.

GUS Think of shear as a spinning top: if the winds change with height, a storm can start to rotate and stay organised, and that is how a supercell forms.

GUS That storm zone also has strong shear, helping storms stay organised.

GUS The Gulf Country on Friday has much weaker deep shear, about 42 kilometres an hour, so those storms will be pulse storms.

GUS A pulse storm goes up quickly, dumps rain, and dies, while a sheared storm can last and travel into the evening.

[c12_index_map]

GUS Now we compress several ingredients into one number that summarises supercell potential.

GUS A supercell is a thunderstorm with a persistent rotating updraught, the type that can produce large hail and damaging wind, and can be the type of storm that starts to spin.

GUS This chart shows the Supercell Composite Parameter, or SCP; it is a guide, not a guarantee.

GUS That spot also shows a moderate SCP, worth watching.

GUS The stronger SCP score is higher, over the Great Victoria Desert on Thursday, where very few people live.

GUS These are modest values, so the risk is for a rotating storm within a line, not a classic strong-supercell outbreak.

[c13_index_map]

GUS This chart is the Significant Hail Parameter, called SHIP, and it helps size up the hail risk.

GUS It combines the freezing level, the updraught speed and the available energy, with higher values suggesting bigger hail.

GUS The highest populated SHIP value in Queensland on Friday is moderate, near Cunnamulla and south of Charleville.

GUS That is enough for hail, perhaps a few centimetres, but not a giant-hail day.

GUS Near Longreach, SHIP is low.

GUS SHIP is an environmental guide, not a hail-size ruler, because the storm still has to form and use the right layer.

[c15_rain_wind]

GUS Now we move from ingredients to what people might actually feel: rain rate and wind.

GUS By Friday night, the storms over southern Queensland can join into a bigger cluster or line, which we call a mesoscale convective system.

GUS When storms join, heavier pockets form inside, so one town gets a downpour and the next one spots you a dry dusty road.

GUS Town numbers: Longreach may get about 2 millimetres of rain, Charleville about 0.1 millimetres, but nearby Cunnamulla has a higher storm chance.

GUS Typical totals for the populated parts are perhaps 10 to 25 millimetres of rain, with isolated spots possibly more than 50 millimetres.

GUS The model comparison here is important: the American GFS and the European AI model show useful rain, but the European model is much drier.

GUS My lean is to keep the storm risk strong but treat rain totals as a range, because the dry European run could be right.

[c16_index_map]

GUS Now the fire and heat danger, because the west is dry and the north is hot.

GUS The Bureau has a Severe Heatwave Warning for the Tiwi and Arnhem Districts near Darwin, and for the Peninsula and Gulf Country Districts in Queensland.

GUS A heatwave warning means very hot days and nights with little relief, so check on older people, kids and pets.

GUS The McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index, or FFDI, measures how easily a fire spreads and how hard it is to control.

GUS The model has an FFDI, the fire danger index, score of about 65 in central Western Australia, about 110 kilometres north-east of Newman, on Friday afternoon.

GUS That is in the severe fire danger category, and the drought factor at one point is 10 out of 10, which is as dry as it gets.

GUS No joke here: in that country a spark can run fast, so official warnings and fire plans matter.

[c21_town_table]

GUS Now the capital cities, because most of us live in them, and you need the high, the low and the rain.

GUS In a morning bulletin, today's low has usually already happened, so I will give today's high and tomorrow's low and high.

GUS Brisbane today: high 27.3 degrees Celsius, about 1.0 millimetres of rain; tomorrow low 15.5 degrees Celsius, high 25.9 degrees Celsius, no rain.

GUS Sydney today: high 21.8 degrees Celsius, no rain; tomorrow low 12.0 degrees Celsius, high 22.5 degrees Celsius, no rain.

GUS Canberra today: high 23.9 degrees Celsius, no rain; tomorrow low 3.4 degrees Celsius, high 25.1 degrees Celsius. Melbourne today high 19.1 degrees Celsius, about 1.0 millimetres of rain, tomorrow low 9.1 degrees Celsius, high 25.6 degrees Celsius.

GUS Hobart today: high 17.5 degrees Celsius, a sprinkle; tomorrow low 8.6 degrees Celsius, high 21.0 degrees Celsius. Adelaide today high 21.3 degrees Celsius, no rain, tomorrow low 9.9 degrees Celsius, high 24.4 degrees Celsius.

GUS Perth today: high 23.8 degrees Celsius, no rain; tomorrow low 16.2 degrees Celsius, high 22.1 degrees Celsius. Darwin today high 33.5 degrees Celsius, about 13.9 millimetres of rain, tomorrow low 25.7 degrees Celsius, high 33.1 degrees Celsius, about 6.3 millimetres of rain.

GUS Good drying weather in Adelaide and Canberra for the washing; Melbourne's Derby Day needs the poncho.

[c90_events]

GUS Now the big events, because the forecast matters most when you are standing in a crowd.

GUS Victoria Derby Day at Flemington on Saturday has the biggest weather question: about 5.6 millimetres of rain, a possible thunderstorm, and gusts to 59 kilometres an hour.

GUS Pack the poncho, and if lightning is close the races pause, so check the organiser.

GUS Sculpture by the Sea between Bondi and Tamarama looks mostly dry but gusty, with southerly winds around 32 kilometres an hour.

GUS The Melbourne Cup on Tuesday has a low-confidence forecast with about 3.7 millimetres of rain; plan for a shower, not a washout.

GUS Most other big events near Sydney and the Gold Coast have light rain or none, so the weather looks kind for them.

[c21_town_table]

GUS Now the week ahead, because a day book is more useful than one day.

GUS Here are the capital city lows and highs for Friday from the extended table: Brisbane 14.9 to 23.5 degrees Celsius, Sydney 15.2 to 21.8 degrees Celsius.

GUS Canberra 9.9 to 22.3 degrees Celsius, Melbourne 9.3 to 24.9 degrees Celsius, Hobart 8.0 to 19.9 degrees Celsius.

GUS Adelaide 17.0 to 26.0 degrees Celsius, Perth 13.8 to 21.9 degrees Celsius, Darwin 25.5 to 32.9 degrees Celsius.

GUS Region by region, the European model's nine-day rain signal has central Queensland heavy on Friday, with Longreach the wettest town.

GUS Northern New South Wales has a heavy signal on Saturday, with Moree, Tamworth and Newcastle the wet spots.

GUS Victoria and Tasmania have a heavy rain signal on Saturday for Melbourne, Geelong, Ballarat, Hobart and Launceston.

GUS Confidence: days 2 to 3 are reasonably reliable, days 4 to 5 a guide, days 6 to 8 only a signal that can change completely.

[c20_plume]

GUS This is the day-by-day storm call from the GFS ingredients, because the week ahead is more than a wet map.

GUS Sunday: south-east Queensland is a bust risk, with about 1125 joules per kilogram of CAPE but no trigger; northern New South Wales and the Top End also have bust risk.

GUS Monday: north Queensland and the Top End are bust risks with energy but no trigger; most of the east is quiet.

GUS Tuesday: south-east Queensland is a soaking signal, but models disagree; northern New South Wales is a boom risk with a trough arriving.

GUS Wednesday: south-east Queensland is a boom risk with a trough coming, but models disagree; far north is a bust risk.

GUS Boom risk means stored storm energy plus a trigger; bust risk means energy without a trigger, so storms can fizzle.

GUS These are signals, not promises; check back this afternoon and we will update the call.

[c21_town_table]

GUS Overall confidence today is high, about 74 per cent. The pattern is well agreed, but exact storm placement is not.

GUS For all the official warnings, check bom.gov.au.

GUS The next bulletin is this afternoon. If you have a weather question, put it in the comments, and tell me what you are seeing where you live safely.

GUS Please subscribe if you want every bulletin.

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